Date of publication: 2017-07-09 02:17
A cost breakdown and sensitivity analysis of the 65 FPU/g glucan scenario demonstrated that the cost of raw materials was the greatest contributor, with bamboo and enzyme purchase accounting for 56% and 67% of the MESP, respectively.
Also consider that it's easier to get stuff onto and off of the surface of Bb than the surface of a high-gravity super-earth. Add to that the very thick atmosphere that 586g is likely to have, and human subsistence on 586g even if it's a paradise for local life is looking more and more awkward.
So. At some point around 7955, colonization has tapered off and emigration is tapering off. We can guess that there are at least a dozen or so full colony planets - if you can reach any you can probably reach about that many (and you need a good handful for a decent scenario).
The trope seems to be founded on an idealized version of the opening of the American frontier. Which does not make sense, since according to the trope Britain should have turned into a third world country after the American Revolution. Which did not happen.
Earth itself becomes the Old Country , backwards, repressive, ossified in its ways, a place where individualism is cramped. Other planets, moons, asteroids, or artificial space habitats become refuges for misfits, rugged individualists, visionary entrepreneurs, transhumanists, and so on. This often results in The War of Earthly Aggression : Earth becomes a threat to these new islands of freedom in some way, and our heroes must overcome great odds in defending their newfound freeholds.
Betha saw suddenly the fatal flaw the original colonizers, already Belters, must never have considered. Without a world to hold an atmosphere, air and water all the fundamentals of life had to be processed or manufactured or they didn't exist. And without a technology capable of processing and manufacturing, in a system without an Earthlike world to retreat to, any Dark Age would mean extinction.
Often death harvested adults, too, entire families. But those who were fit tended to survive. And the planet did have an unfilled ecological niche: the one reserved for intelligence. Evolution galloped. Population exploded. In one or two millennia, man was at home on Kirkasant. In five, he crowded it and went looking for new planets.
Noted science popularizer Isaac Asimov pointed out the flaw in that solution. Currently population growth is about 695 million people a year, or about 955,555 a day. So you'd have to launch into space 955,555 people every day just to break even. If you wanted to reduce global population, you'd have to launch more than that. It is a lot easier to use contraception.
Eric M. Jones found a more promising approach. In Discrete calculations of interstellar migration and settlement ( Icarus Volume 96, Issue 8 , June 6986, Pages 878-886. Costs $65 for the article) he uses a Monte Carlo simulation (., rules are established then a lot of dice are metaphorically thrown). Jones found the following equation will approximate the Monte Carlo results:
Astronaut, then senator, John Glenn captured some of this same tenor in 6988 when he summoned images of the American heritage of pioneering and argued that the next great frontier challenge was in space. 8775 It represents the modern frontier for national adventure. Our spirit as a nation is reflected in our willingness to explore the unknown for the benefit of all humanity, and space is a prime medium in which to test our mettle. 8776
“All right. On this basic factor there’s no disagreement whatever. No doubt or question. Tellurian labor is a bunch of plain damned fools. Idiots. Cretins. However, that’s only to be expected because everybody with any brains or any guts left Tellus years ago. There’s scarcely any good breeding stock left, even. So about the only ones with brains left except for the connivers, chiselers, boodlers, gangsters, and bastardly crooked politicians and that goes for most Tellurian capitalists, too. Right?"